作者:顺北秉董 来源:原创 时间:2019-09-06 阅读:46 次

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不认怂!美联储宣布加息引巨震 市场情绪受重挫

????不出所料!北京时间今日凌晨3点,美联储宣布加息25个基点至2.25%-2.50%,符合市场广泛预期。这是美联储年内第四次加息,也是其自2015年12月开启本轮紧缩周期以来的第九次升息。值得注意的是,美联储的声明并没有市场预期地那么鸽派。不过联储声明称美国经济状况强劲,美联储主席鲍威尔发言称政治考量不会影响利率决定,暗示明年将加息两次。加息消息成大杀器,美股、欧元应声大跌、美元指数大涨。道指大跳水跌超350点,纳指跌破6700点关口,标普500创近15个月新低。01不认怂!美联储“执意加息”本周四可谓是“超级星期四”,除了发布一系列重磅数据,美国、英国及日本央行利率决议都将公布,重头戏当属美联储加息。今日凌晨发布的美联储声明指出,就业市场已继续增强,经济活动一直都在强劲上升。最近几个月以来,平均而言就业增长一直都很强劲,失业率一直保持在低位。家庭支出继续强劲增长,而商业固定投资的增长与今年早些时候的较快速度相比有所缓和。考虑到已实现及预期的就业市场状况和通货膨胀,联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至2.25%至2.50%。在此次会议上,联邦公开市场委员会的全体委员均投票支持其利率决定。实际上,在本次议息会议前,周二暴跌的美股步步逼近熊市,周三仍然反弹乏力,隔夜美股早盘上涨后一度下挫,标普盘中跌0.5%,最终基本持平。而道指早盘涨超200点后一度微跌,最终小幅收涨,纳指也微幅收涨0.45%。再加上,美国总统特朗普今年曾多次批评美联储的升息举措,称此举削弱了他提振经济的努力。值得注意的是,就在本周二,特朗普还警告美联储官员不要“再犯错误”。02各方点评:如何看待美联储此次加息?事实上,本次美联储会后声明被认为语气有所软化,但并非完全鸽派。Oxford首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco点评称,FOMC的声明是“鸽派加息”,但没有市场预计的那么鸽派;美联储主席鲍威尔的发布会总体来说偏鸽派但关于资产负债表正常化现状的措辞可以被视作鹰派表态。个人预计,明年一月美联储将维持鸽派特点,移除“一些渐进加息”的措辞。金融博客零对冲指出,美联储主席鲍威尔的发言不仅仅“不够鸽派”,他还确认将会继续推进资产负债表的正常化进程(以及继续收紧金融环境)。芝加哥Kingsview资产管理公司投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示,美联储预计明年将加息两次,因为预计经济会持续走强。但个人观点是经济增速将更低,预计国债收益率将进一步下跌。他还称,作为股市投资者,担忧经济数据疲软以及贸易摩擦等因素,但美联储似乎并没有太担忧这些风险。而PGIM固定收益投资组合经理柯林斯(Michael Collins)说道,美联储意外地减少明年的加息次数,如果联邦基准利率在未来10年内的均值是2.80而不是3%,那理论上会降低10年期国债利率,这就相当于让利率曲线加速变平了。03加息引巨震 市场反应剧烈美股的连续重挫、美国总统特朗普对加息持续炮轰等,令此次议息会议备受关注。在多重压力下,美联储仍硬挺不认怂宣布加息,这是美联储24年来首次在股市连续下挫时宣布加息。而美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话不够鸽派,令市场情绪受挫,市场随之给出了充分的反应——美股开盘后涨跌不一,道指开盘涨0.1%,标普500涨0.01%,纳指跌0.1%;在美联储宣布加息后,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌351.98点,收于23323.66点,回吐早盘近380点涨幅,创下年度新低。纳斯达克综合指数收跌147.08点,跌幅2.17%,收于6636.83点。标准普尔500指数下跌1.5%,收于2506.96点,创下近15个月新低。现货黄金大跌16美元,跌至1243美元/盎司。欧元兑美元则大跌66点,跌破1.14大关,报1.1378。美元指数则一度飙升至97.11的日内高点。04美联储加息,对A股有何影响?受美联储加息消息的影响,昨日A股两市场高开低走收跌。就A股而言,区间震荡仍然机构的基线判断,不过外资的持续流入有望提振市场情绪。过去两周,北向资金的日均净流入为23.15亿元,与11月大体持平(11月日均净流入24.56亿元,10月日均净流出4.39亿元)。瑞银证券估算,在过去两周,银行(净流入50亿元)超过食品饮料(净流入38.3亿元)成为海外投资者净买入量最大的板块。对于美联储加息的影响,前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为,可以确定的是美联储这轮加息周期已经接近尾声,对于全球资本市场会有一定的影响。根据历史经验,一般来说,在美联储加息周期,新兴市场的表现都比较差,而美股表现相对比较强。而对美联储有了结束加息周期的预期,这对新兴市场是一个重大的利好,往往在美联储结束加息周期后,新兴市场会迎来转机。杨德龙表示,最近美股接连大跌,但是A股和港股并没有跟随大跌,而是小幅地调整,很明显的就是已经开始走出独立行情。如果能确认美联储明年确定结束加息周期,那么A股和港股会有超预期的表现。05市场如何看待人民币?尽管上周在美元指数仍在小幅攀升时,人民币也在同步小幅升值。但近期,人民币的贬值预期已经明显弱化。德国商业银行亚洲高级经济师周浩表示,近期市场几乎看不到人民币走弱的空间,因此即使是美元指数被动走强,交易力量仍然推着人民币走升,“至少在近几个月没有破7的可能性,因此做空意义不大”。渣打银行近期也认为,中美在G20会议上作出的承诺暂时抑制了市场对离岸人民币的悲观情绪,1年期远期隐含的离岸人民币贬值不到1%。采写:南都记者田姣 南都见习记者熊润淼

bu chu suo liao! bei jing shi jian jin ri ling chen 3 dian, mei lian chu xuan bu jia xi 25 ge ji dian zhi 2. 25 2. 50, fu he shi chang guang fan yu qi. zhe shi mei lian chu nian nei di si ci jia xi, ye shi qi zi 2015 nian 12 yue kai qi ben lun jin suo zhou qi yi lai de di jiu ci sheng xi. zhi de zhu yi de shi, mei lian chu de sheng ming bing mei you shi chang yu qi di na me ge pai. bu guo lian chu sheng ming cheng mei guo jing ji zhuang kuang qiang jing, mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er fa yan cheng zheng zhi kao liang bu hui ying xiang li lv jue ding, an shi ming nian jiang jia xi liang ci. jia xi xiao xi cheng da sha qi, mei gu ou yuan ying sheng da die mei yuan zhi shu da zhang. dao zhi da tiao shui die chao 350 dian, na zhi die po 6700 dian guan kou, biao pu 500 chuang jin 15 ge yue xin di. 01 bu ren song! mei lian chu" zhi yi jia xi" ben zhou si ke wei shi" chao ji xing qi si", chu le fa bu yi xi lie zhong bang shu ju, mei guo ying guo ji ri ben yang hang li lv jue yi dou jiang gong bu, chong tou xi dang shu mei lian chu jia xi. jin ri ling chen fa bu de mei lian chu sheng ming zhi chu, jiu ye shi chang yi ji xu zeng qiang, jing ji huo dong yi zhi dou zai qiang jing shang sheng. zui jin ji ge yue yi lai, ping jun er yan jiu ye zeng zhang yi zhi dou hen qiang jing, shi ye lv yi zhi bao chi zai di wei. jia ting zhi chu ji xu qiang jing zeng zhang, er shang ye gu ding tou zi de zeng zhang yu jin nian zao xie shi hou de jiao kuai su du xiang bi you suo huan he. kao lv dao yi shi xian ji yu qi de jiu ye shi chang zhuang kuang he tong huo peng zhang, lian bang gong kai shi chang wei yuan hui jue ding jiang lian bang ji jin li lv de mu biao qu jian shang diao zhi 2. 25 zhi 2. 50. zai ci ci hui yi shang, lian bang gong kai shi chang wei yuan hui de quan ti wei yuan jun tou piao zhi chi qi li lv jue ding. shi ji shang, zai ben ci yi xi hui yi qian, zhou er bao die de mei gu bu bu bi jin xiong shi, zhou san reng ran fan dan fa li, ge ye mei gu zao pan shang zhang hou yi du xia cuo, biao pu pan zhong die 0. 5, zui zhong ji ben chi ping. er dao zhi zao pan zhang chao 200 dian hou yi du wei die, zui zhong xiao fu shou zhang, na zhi ye wei fu shou zhang 0. 45. zai jia shang, mei guo zong tong te lang pu jin nian ceng duo ci pi ping mei lian chu de sheng xi ju cuo, cheng ci ju xue ruo le ta ti zhen jing ji de nu li. zhi de zhu yi de shi, jiu zai ben zhou er, te lang pu hai jing gao mei lian chu guan yuan bu yao" zai fan cuo wu". 02 ge fang dian ping: ru he kan dai mei lian chu ci ci jia xi? shi shi shang, ben ci mei lian chu hui hou sheng ming bei ren wei yu qi you suo ruan hua, dan bing fei wan quan ge pai. Oxford shou xi mei guo jing ji xue jia Gregory Daco dian ping cheng, FOMC de sheng ming shi" ge pai jia xi", dan mei you shi chang yu ji de na me ge pai mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er de fa bu hui zong ti lai shuo pian ge pai dan guan yu zi chan fu zhai biao zheng chang hua xian zhuang de cuo ci ke yi bei shi zuo ying pai biao tai. ge ren yu ji, ming nian yi yue mei lian chu jiang wei chi ge pai te dian, yi chu" yi xie jian jin jia xi" de cuo ci. jin rong bo ke ling dui chong zhi chu, mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er de fa yan bu jin jin" bu gou ge pai", ta hai que ren jiang hui ji xu tui jin zi chan fu zhai biao de zheng chang hua jin cheng yi ji ji xu shou jin jin rong huan jing. zhi jia ge Kingsview zi chan guan li gong si tou zi zu he jing li Paul Nolte biao shi, mei lian chu yu ji ming nian jiang jia xi liang ci, yin wei yu ji jing ji hui chi xu zou qiang. dan ge ren guan dian shi jing ji zeng su jiang geng di, yu ji guo zhai shou yi lv jiang jin yi bu xia die. ta hai cheng, zuo wei gu shi tou zi zhe, dan you jing ji shu ju pi ruan yi ji mao yi mo ca deng yin su, dan mei lian chu si hu bing mei you tai dan you zhei xie feng xian. er PGIM gu ding shou yi tou zi zu he jing li ke lin si Michael Collins shuo dao, mei lian chu yi wai di jian shao ming nian de jia xi ci shu, ru guo lian bang ji zhun li lv zai wei lai 10 nian nei de jun zhi shi 2. 80 er bu shi 3, na li lun shang hui jiang di 10 nian qi guo zhai li lv, zhe jiu xiang dang yu rang li lv qu xian jia su bian ping le. 03 jia xi yin ju zhen shi chang fan ying ju lie mei gu de lian xu zhong cuo mei guo zong tong te lang pu dui jia xi chi xu pao hong deng, ling ci ci yi xi hui yi bei shou guan zhu. zai duo chong ya li xia, mei lian chu reng ying ting bu ren song xuan bu jia xi, zhe shi mei lian chu 24 nian lai shou ci zai gu shi lian xu xia cuo shi xuan bu jia xi. er mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er de jiang hua bu gou ge pai, ling shi chang qing xu shou cuo, shi chang sui zhi gei chu le chong fen de fan ying mei gu kai pan hou zhang die bu yi, dao zhi kai pan zhang 0. 1, biao pu 500 zhang 0. 01, na zhi die 0. 1 zai mei lian chu xuan bu jia xi hou, dao qiong si gong ye ping jun zhi shu xia die 351. 98 dian, shou yu 23323. 66 dian, hui tu zao pan jin 380 dian zhang fu, chuang xia nian du xin di. na si da ke zong he zhi shu shou die 147. 08 dian, die fu 2. 17, shou yu 6636. 83 dian. biao zhun pu er 500 zhi shu xia die 1. 5, shou yu 2506. 96 dian, chuang xia jin 15 ge yue xin di. xian huo huang jin da die 16 mei yuan, die zhi 1243 mei yuan ang si. ou yuan dui mei yuan ze da die 66 dian, die po 1. 14 da guan, bao 1. 1378. mei yuan zhi shu ze yi du biao sheng zhi 97. 11 de ri nei gao dian. 04 mei lian chu jia xi, dui A gu you he ying xiang? shou mei lian chu jia xi xiao xi de ying xiang, zuo ri A gu liang shi chang gao kai di zou shou die. jiu A gu er yan, qu jian zhen dang reng ran ji gou de ji xian pan duan, bu guo wai zi de chi xu liu ru you wang ti zhen shi chang qing xu. guo qu liang zhou, bei xiang zi jin de ri jun jing liu ru wei 23. 15 yi yuan, yu 11 yue da ti chi ping 11 yue ri jun jing liu ru 24. 56 yi yuan, 10 yue ri jun jing liu chu 4. 39 yi yuan. rui yin zheng quan gu suan, zai guo qu liang zhou, yin hang jing liu ru 50 yi yuan chao guo shi pin yin liao jing liu ru 38. 3 yi yuan cheng wei hai wai tou zi zhe jing mai ru liang zui da de ban kuai. dui yu mei lian chu jia xi de ying xiang, qian hai kai yuan ji jin shou xi jing ji xue jia yang de long ren wei, ke yi que ding de shi mei lian chu zhe lun jia xi zhou qi yi jing jie jin wei sheng, dui yu quan qiu zi ben shi chang hui you yi ding de ying xiang. gen ju li shi jing yan, yi ban lai shuo, zai mei lian chu jia xi zhou qi, xin xing shi chang de biao xian dou bi jiao cha, er mei gu biao xian xiang dui bi jiao qiang. er dui mei lian chu you liao jie shu jia xi zhou qi de yu qi, zhe dui xin xing shi chang shi yi ge zhong da de li hao, wang wang zai mei lian chu jie shu jia xi zhou qi hou, xin xing shi chang hui ying lai zhuan ji. yang de long biao shi, zui jin mei gu jie lian da die, dan shi A gu he gang gu bing mei you gen sui da die, er shi xiao fu di tiao zheng, hen ming xian de jiu shi yi jing kai shi zou chu du li hang qing. ru guo neng que ren mei lian chu ming nian que ding jie shu jia xi zhou qi, na me A gu he gang gu hui you chao yu qi de biao xian. 05 shi chang ru he kan dai ren min bi? jin guan shang zhou zai mei yuan zhi shu reng zai xiao fu pan sheng shi, ren min bi ye zai tong bu xiao fu sheng zhi. dan jin qi, ren min bi de bian zhi yu qi yi jing ming xian ruo hua. de guo shang ye yin hang ya zhou gao ji jing ji shi zhou hao biao shi, jin qi shi chang ji hu kan bu dao ren min bi zou ruo de kong jian, yin ci ji shi shi mei yuan zhi shu bei dong zou qiang, jiao yi li liang reng ran tui zhe ren min bi zou sheng," zhi shao zai jin ji ge yue mei you po 7 de ke neng xing, yin ci zuo kong yi yi bu da". zha da yin hang jin qi ye ren wei, zhong mei zai G20 hui yi shang zuo chu de cheng nuo zan shi yi zhi le shi chang dui li an ren min bi de bei guan qing xu, 1 nian qi yuan qi yin han de li an ren min bi bian zhi bu dao 1. cai xie: nan dou ji zhe tian jiao nan dou jian xi ji zhe xiong run miao

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